Assam: Seismic Concerns Mount as Kopili Fault Zone Shows Heightened Activity

GUWAHATI– The Kopili Fault Zone, a 300-kilometer-long seismically active fault line stretching across Northeast India, has once again drawn the attention of researchers and residents alike due to its recent activity.

Experts are warning that this deep-rooted geological structure, extending from western Manipur to the tri-junction of Bhutan, Arunachal Pradesh, and Assam, remains “very active” and could potentially trigger an earthquake exceeding a magnitude of 7.0 in the near future.

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The latest update comes following a magnitude 5.0 earthquake that struck on February 27, 2025, with its epicenter located near the Kopili Fault, close to the site of the 2021 Sonitpur earthquake.

Preliminary analysis suggests that this event is part of an ongoing pattern of seismic unrest in the region.

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Over the past few decades (1984–2019), the Kopili Fault Zone has produced 11 significant earthquakes ranging from magnitude 5.0 to 6.7, driven by strike-slip faulting—a mechanism where tectonic plates slide past each other horizontally.

Researchers have expressed growing concern over the fault’s potential for a larger event. “The implication of recent seismic sequences, including the 2021 Sonitpur earthquake, reminds us of the vulnerability of the Kopili Fault Zone to generate a magnitude 7.0 or higher quake,” noted a team of seismologists in a recent study.

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The fault, described as a mantle-reaching transverse structure predating the collision of the Indian and Tibetan plates, spans a 100-kilometer-wide zone of intense seismicity, amplifying its threat to the densely populated Northeast.

Despite the ominous predictions, some experts see a silver lining. Seismologist Saurav Baruah, based in Guwahati, commented, “The Kopili Fault system is indeed very active, but the release of accumulated energy through smaller quakes like the recent 5.0 event could be a positive sign.

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It suggests the fault is not locking up entirely, which might reduce the immediate risk of a catastrophic rupture.” However, he cautioned that the unpredictability of earthquakes means preparedness remains critical.

The February 27 quake, while not causing significant damage, has reignited calls for heightened vigilance in the region. Local authorities and residents are being urged to stay prepared, with recommendations circulating on social media platforms to keep “go-bags” stocked with essentials such as vital documents, medicines, and emergency supplies.

As Northeast India braces for the possibility of a major seismic event, the Kopili Fault Zone continues to serve as a stark reminder of the region’s precarious position atop one of the world’s most dynamic tectonic boundaries.

With no precise method to predict the timing, location, or magnitude of the next big quake, experts and communities alike are left to focus on resilience and readiness in the face of nature’s unpredictability.