Sumona Ganguly ( writer is a active blogger )
India- Surging Ahead, Beyond Roads & Belts- A War just never happens, it is always imposed upon a country. As the teaching goes, the best wars are supposed to be fought in someone else’s land. It has always happened that when two super powers fight, it is a third world country that bleeds. Sudan may be a perfect example. The world gradually stands divided on the various conspiracy theories regarding the deadly fangs of the corona virus. Meanwhile, one thing is for sure. In near future, if a war has to happen, it will be between two super powers with two very different policies, outlook and concept. If they have to confront, if they will have to take on each other, the next most important question is which country would be the chosen one to bleed?
Taiwan as a small nation with its own disputed existence is being threatened over the last few days by the presence of the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning that led a group of two guided-missile destroyers, two guided-missile frigates and an auxiliary ship in the controversial South China Sea. A Vietnamese fishing vessel was sunk earlier this month by the Chinese coastguard in the same sea. This incident led to Philippines, who themselves have been the victim of such situation last year, expressing their solidarity with Vietnam. Vietnam has never been comfortable with China’s consistent display of growing military power in the South China Sea. They have been highly vocal in expressing their concern, even as China keeps building islands with military bases. Loaded with hatred and propaganda supremacy, this arm twisting by China over its neighbors, goes on even as the four US Navy aircraft carriers — the USS Theodore Roosevelt, the USS Ronald Reagan, the USS Carl Vinson and the USS Nimitz, having reported positive cases of China Virus is reducing their operations. Unfortunately, USS Roosevelt, currently docked in Guam, has borne the hardest brunt. Almost all of its infected cases have been moved to the island of Guam, as the ship gets disinfected. Is this sending out wrong strategic signals across the world? PLA Navy still is yet to report any such impact by the virus. Does it mean that the PLA remains at the top with its maritime military power in the South China Sea? Does it prove that their troops are healthy and capable to strike anywhere, anytime? If they are speaking the truth, do we believe them? Believe a country that sustains on lies and deception? But then in the current scenario, nothing can be ignored or should be taken lightly.
While US navy is gradually moving under quarantine, is China testing waters before the final assault? Where will the new battle ground be? Is it going to be Taiwan or India? Who decides? Amidst the pandemic raging across the globe, the UN Secretary General, António Guterres, has called for an immediate Global ceasefire across world. He has requested the nations to stop all armed conflicts and unite in the fight against the virus. However, the regular maritime activities in the South China Sea and the constant Pakistani shelling along the LOC, rather indicates small baby step towards the search for the new battle ground. Taiwan is a small country that knows a lot about China and may also have the capability to openly challenge the Chinese along with its allies. Meanwhile, India as a country is waiting to emerge as the next best choice for the rest of the world as a Global production center. China is a country that has never believed in direct confrontation. That makes us think, what options does the European nations have, just in case they have to form an ally?
The current scenario seems to be created on purpose to build up a pressure on both the regions. In Indian perspective, Pakistan, even after 72 years still keeps begging for Kashmir. Maybe begging is in their blood. But with China investing billions in the CPEC corridor and the Gwadar port, will not leave any stone unturned to help Pakistan get Kashmir in their begging bowl. China has also been investing fortunes on the “One Belt One Road” project involving 64 countries of the world, across Asia, Africa and Europe. The OBOR project joins the three continents and reduces the length of Maritime Silk Route currently in use by China.
Getting India-Pak as the battle ground will be a win-win game for China as that would take care of a lots of issues. It will foremost stop India from emerging as a Global power by finishing off its economic competition with China. The CPEC project has high probability that it might get through and China may become the most powerful nation in the Global scenario. With India being a non-aggressive and vulnerable nation, it becomes an easy target. Pakistan meanwhile may get Myanmar and Nepal on board. Thus, India will almost be surrounded with foes from all sides. This may also give China the economic and geographical control over entire Asia.
On the other hand, Taiwan as battle ground gives more advantage to the allied forces or the rest of the world. The little island being too close to mainland China allows various Navies to have a way to showcase their fire power. Other options like Afghanistan or Iran also cannot be ruled out, specially with US showing interest in both the nations. But it will all depend upon how the plans and policies unfold. After all, it’s a modern warfare. Nothing conventional is expected.
At an international level, can the world create a Global pressure on China or not, that we are yet to see. For sure, post Corona era, the world will no longer be the same. It will be all about China Vs The World. But surely the countries can now get together and think of ways to end this brutal Jinping regime. Will it be the right time to support Taiwan and grant it a Nation status? Irrespective of China’s claim on Taiwan, it is ruled by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), a Taiwanese nationalist and liberal political party. China is ruled by the Chinese Communist Party(CCP). Empowering Taiwan now will help the nationalist party to grow strong, which may further balance the power factor in Chinese politics.
An enemy that refuses to come for direct confrontation has to be taken on indirectly. How about thinking of the long pending issue of independence of Tibet? We must not forget, with 6 rivers originating from Tibet, it supplies water to the mostly arid China and many countries of South & South East Asia. Mao Zedong, in 1950, had annexed Tibet so as to have a lifelong control over the water resources. If Tibet decides to rethink its water power, it can dry up China in no time. If the people of Tibet wants to utilize the opportunity and decide to create political unrest around this water resources, any steps on this front can threaten water security. Any little disturbance has a high probability to give rise to a geopolitical conflict in the region. An unrest Tibet will also have impact on the CPEC corridor and China will face a major setback in its dream project.
If it is an asymmetric warfare, lets not talk of any fairness or logic or evenness…moreover it is said – All is fair in love and war…here there was no love…just cunning strategy to stealthily bring the world down to its knees in front of the Jinping regime. And in the meantime, the world must unite to ban China, ban Chinese products and stop all business deals with the rogue nation.
As the Global political scenario slowly reveals the future course of action, we as Indian citizens have to wait and watch. A very crucial time that decides how we react to the situations, will initiate the actions being taken by the Govt and the Administration. Under no circumstances should our actions or reactions trigger further pressure on the Govt, which may force them to succumb to the situation brewing up in the South East Asia.
In today’s day of modern warfare, where the main medium is propaganda, lies and rumors, we must not fall prey to such elements. Even a simple sensible step could keep us at bay. As they say charity begins at home, lets do our best as the responsible citizen to help the country survive through this crisis. Social Media is the biggest trap of the day. Stop and analyse all Whatsapp forwards, Twitter & Facebook tags or emails. Check for language, tone, grammar and punctuation before forwarding or sharing any such social media material, posters, messages, tweets, jokes that could trigger a potential communal disharmony. Don’t forget, any and all such acts are punishable under the law of the land.
Whatever may come, we must never forget that India has seen it all and survived.
It’s time for Yoga vs Kung Fu
It’s time for Swami Ji vs Sun Tzu
It’s time for Namaste vs Handshake
It’s time to see who wins…Truth or Deception.
And The War?…Continues…
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