BJP-led NDA Set for Historic Hat-Trick in Assam, Exit Polls Predict
Exit polls project NDA crossing majority mark with ease; record turnout and single-phase polling mark key election highlights.
GUWAHATI— The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party ( BJP )-led National Democratic Alliance ( NDA ) is projected to secure a resounding victory in the 2026 Assam Assembly elections, according to multiple exit polls released on Wednesday evening. The projections suggest a clear mandate for a third consecutive term for the government led by Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma.
Exit Poll Projections
Most major pollsters predict the NDA will comfortably cross the majority mark of 64 seats in the 126-member House, while the Congress-led opposition alliance is expected to finish a distant second.
| Polling Agency | NDA (BJP+) | Congress+ | Others/AIUDF |
| Axis My India | 88–100 | 24–36 | 0–3 |
| JVC | 88–101 | 23–33 | 2–5 |
| Matrize | 85–95 | 25–32 | 6–12 |
| VoteVibe | 90–100 | 23–33 | 0–6 |
| P-MARQ | 82–94 | 30–40 | 1–5 |
Source: Consolidated from various news reports.
Record Voter Participation
The state witnessed an unprecedented level of democratic engagement, recording its highest-ever voter turnout at 85.96%. This surpasses the previous records of 84.67% in 2016 and 82.04% in 2021.
- Highest Turnout: South Salmara-Mankachar district (95.58%).
- Lowest Turnout: West Karbi Anglong district (75.25%).
- Demographics: Female voter turnout was recorded at 85.96%, slightly higher than the male turnout of 84.40%.
Key Highlights of the Election
Leadership Face-off: The campaign largely centered on the leadership of CM Himanta Biswa Sarma versus the challenge from the Congress-led alliance spearheaded by Gaurav Gogoi.
Historic Format: For the first time, Assam held its assembly elections in a single phase on April 9 across all 126 constituencies.
Chief Ministerial Preference: Post-poll surveys indicate Himanta Biswa Sarma remains the frontrunner for the CM post with 51.2% support, followed by Gaurav Gogoi at 37.2%.
Counting and Security
The Election Commission of India (ECI) has scheduled the counting of votes for May 4, 2026. Chief Electoral Officer Anurag Goel confirmed that strong rooms are under 24/7 CCTV surveillance and guarded by Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF). The Congress has also formed special monitoring teams to oversee the security of these strong rooms until counting day.
The final results, to be declared on May 4, will determine if these projections hold true or if the state sees a late political shift.
