Exit Polls Signal Landslide Win for NDA in Bihar Assembly Polls

PATNA-  As the final phase of voting in the high-stakes Bihar assembly elections concluded today, a chorus of exit polls has painted a resounding picture of victory for the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

With the 243-seat assembly requiring 122 for a majority, pollsters across the board project the NDA to secure a comfortable two-thirds or more, potentially paving the way for a third consecutive term for the alliance.

The opposition Mahagathbandhan (MGB), spearheaded by Lalu Prasad’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and including Congress and Left parties, is forecasted to lag far behind, while debutant Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) appears to have fizzled out with negligible gains.

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The elections, held in two phases on November 4 and 11 amid record voter turnout exceeding 65%, were marked by intense caste-based mobilization, youth unemployment concerns, and the NDA’s pitch on development and law-and-order. Official results are slated for November 14, but exit polls—conducted by agencies like Matrize, P-Marq, Chanakya Strategies, and others—offer an early glimpse into voter sentiment.

Consensus on NDA Dominance Averaging projections from nine major exit polls, including those by TIF Research, DV Research, and Dainik Bhaskar, the NDA is expected to clinch 140-160 seats, up from its 125 in 2020. This would mark a significant rebound for the alliance, which had faced anti-incumbency whispers earlier in the campaign. In stark contrast, the MGB’s tally is projected at 80-100 seats, a sharp dip from its 110 in the last polls, signaling a reversal of Tejashwi Yadav’s rising fortunes.

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News18 Mega Exit Poll: NDA 140-150 seats; MGB 85-95; JSP 0-5. It highlights JD(U) as the single largest party with 60-70 seats, crediting Nitish Kumar’s consolidation of EBC (Extremely Backward Classes) votes.

Matrize-IANS: The most bullish on NDA at 147-167 seats, with MGB at 70-90. Analysts attribute this to a 65% women voter tilt towards NDA, driven by schemes like free electricity and improved safety metrics.

P-Marq: NDA 142-162; MGB 80-98; JSP 1-4. Party-wise, it sees BJP gaining 68-78 seats on the back of aggressive Hindu consolidation.

Chanakya Strategies: A more conservative NDA 130-138; MGB 100-108. It notes the MGB’s edge in Yadav-Muslim strongholds but insufficient to challenge NDA’s broader caste arithmetic.

People’s Insight: NDA 133-148, with BJP at 68-72 and JD(U) at 55-60; MGB 87-102, RJD leading at 65-72. The poll underscores Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) bagging 9-12 seats in Paswan-dominated pockets.

Dainik Bhaskar: NDA 145-160; MGB 73-91; JSP 0. It predicts a “landslide” for the BJP-led front, factoring in rural distress but NDA’s superior booth management.

Poll Diary: Outlier with NDA at a whopping 184-209 seats; MGB 32-49, dismissing opposition unity as fractured.

These projections align with broader trends observed in phase-wise breakdowns. In the first phase (November 4), NDA is tipped to win 60-70 of 106 seats, per News18, bolstered by strong performances in Seemanchal and Mithila regions.

Party-Wise Breakdown:  JD(U) Edges BJP? Across polls offering granular data, JD(U) emerges as a surprise frontrunner within NDA, projected at 55-75 seats, potentially surpassing BJP’s 55-78. This shift is analyzed as Nitish Kumar’s personal appeal among Kurmi and EBC voters outweighing BJP’s national wave.

For MGB, RJD holds steady at 50-79 seats but loses ground among youth, with Congress scraping 9-20 and Left parties 11-15.

Smaller players like Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) and AIMIM may snag 1-5 seats in urban fringes. JSP’s Damp Squib Debut Prashant Kishor’s much-hyped Jan Suraaj, launched as an anti-establishment force, is universally panned with 0-5 seats across surveys.

Pollsters like TOI attribute its flop to vote-splitting in opposition bastions without denting NDA, calling it a “no breakthrough” despite Kishor’s door-to-door campaign.

Market Cheers, Opposition Bruised The NDA’s projected win has immediate ripples beyond politics. Stock market analysts foresee a positive sentiment boost, with infrastructure and consumer stocks rallying on expectations of policy continuity.

Tejashwi Yadav’s CM ambitions stand dashed, with RJD insiders hinting at internal recriminations over alliance dynamics.

As Bihar awaits the verdict, these polls—remembering their mixed 2020 accuracy—underscore a electorate rewarding stability over change. The NDA’s juggernaut rolls on, but November 14 will have the final say.